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Greatest Comeback in Political History: Donald Trump.

WHAT DOES A DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENCY MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA AND THE WORLD?

6TH OF NOVEMBER 2024 – THE DAY HISTORY WAS MADE

One of the greatest political comebacks in world history occurred in the US on 6 November 2024, with the Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump defeating the Democrat nominee and current Vice-President Kamala Harris to be elected the 47th President of the US. The result was convincing, with Trump winning both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote, whilst strong results by his Republican Party in the Congressional Elections ensures they will comprise the US Senate majority, with the House of Representatives still undecided. The nature of the Congressional result may mean that Trump has more power to enact his agenda and policies.

WHAT IS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?

The US is unique in the process through which it determines the winner of a Presidential election. Whilst most countries across the world elect their President by virtue of a ‘popular vote’, which refers to the candidate gaining the most votes nationwide, the US elects their President through the ‘Electoral College’.

The ‘Electoral College’ is grounded in the US Constitution and involves each US State and the District of Columbia being allocated a predetermined number of electoral votes, to be cast by relevant electors chosen by a party. The Presidential candidate who secures a majority of the popular vote in a state, collects the entirety of that state’s allocated electoral college votes, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, who don’t use a winner takes all approach. The relevant electors are then expected, and often required by law, to cast their Electoral College vote in accordance with the result. The candidate who receives 270 Electoral College votes nationwide wins the election.

Electoral College Fun Fact:

WHAT DOES THIS VICTORY MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA?

Australia and the US have historically had very strong and positive relations which are built on and underpinned by shared democratic values, common interests, history and culture. In 2021, these relations were reaffirmed with the signing of the AUKUS Treaty, an enhanced trilateral security partnership that increased security cooperation between Australia, the US and the UK.

The nature and depth of these relations ensures the strength and positivity of the relations between our two countries is unlikely to change, regardless of which individual or government is in power. Nevertheless, it does not mean that there aren’t uncomfortable moments. The current Australian Ambassador to the US, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is under pressure, having previously tweeted calling Donald Trump a “traitor to the West” and “the most destructive President in history.” Mr Rudd’s office stated that he had posted the comments “in his previous role as the head of an independent US-based think tank.” Mr Rudd is expected to hold on to his Ambassadorial role, with the Australian Prime Minister and Government standing by him, whilst the Opposition has not called for him to be recalled from his post.

 

WHAT DOES THIS VICTORY MEAN FOR THE WORLD?

Trump has pledged to impose tariffs of 10% and 20% on imports from across the globe, and up to 60% on imports coming from China. This will not only impact the economic growth of the countries that are subject to high tariffs, but will also have a flow on effect globally. Former Australian Ambassador to the US, Arthur Sinodinos, stated that “if China comes in for a disproportionate hit with tariffs and all the rest, it’ll flow into their growth, and therefore our economy as well.” It is also likely that there will be retaliatory action to Trump’s tariffs and economic impacts that naturally flow.

Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine almost immediately upon assuming the Presidency, by bringing Putin and Zelenskyy to the table. This approach will place Ukraine in a vulnerable position, as Ukraine is reliant on the US for financial, weaponry and political support. This provides Trump enormous leverage and will enable him to pressure Zelenskyy to compromise and make concessions. Putin, on the other hand, is not as vulnerable to any demands from Trump to concede as there is no support the US provides Russia regardless and it is highly unlikely that Trump would have the US engage in a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia.

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