WHAT DOES A DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENCY MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA AND THE WORLD?
6TH OF NOVEMBER 2024 – THE DAY HISTORY WAS MADE
One of the greatest political comebacks in world history occurred in the US on 6 November 2024, with the Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump defeating the Democrat nominee and current Vice-President Kamala Harris to be elected the 47th President of the US. The result was convincing, with Trump winning both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote, whilst strong results by his Republican Party in the Congressional Elections ensures they will comprise the US Senate majority, with the House of Representatives still undecided. The nature of the Congressional result may mean that Trump has more power to enact his agenda and policies.
WHAT IS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?
The ‘Electoral College’ is grounded in the US Constitution and involves each US State and the District of Columbia being allocated a predetermined number of electoral votes, to be cast by relevant electors chosen by a party. The Presidential candidate who secures a majority of the popular vote in a state, collects the entirety of that state’s allocated electoral college votes, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, who don’t use a winner takes all approach. The relevant electors are then expected, and often required by law, to cast their Electoral College vote in accordance with the result. The candidate who receives 270 Electoral College votes nationwide wins the election.
Electoral College Fun Fact:
- A candidate can lose the Popular Vote, yet win the Presidential Election. This occurred in the 2016 US Election where the Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million more votes nationwide than her opponent Donald Trump, yet Donald Trump’s 306 Electoral College votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232 Electoral College votes won him the election. This situation has occurred in 4 other US Presidential elections (1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000).
WHAT DOES THIS VICTORY MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA?
The nature and depth of these relations ensures the strength and positivity of the relations between our two countries is unlikely to change, regardless of which individual or government is in power. Nevertheless, it does not mean that there aren’t uncomfortable moments. The current Australian Ambassador to the US, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is under pressure, having previously tweeted calling Donald Trump a “traitor to the West” and “the most destructive President in history.” Mr Rudd’s office stated that he had posted the comments “in his previous role as the head of an independent US-based think tank.” Mr Rudd is expected to hold on to his Ambassadorial role, with the Australian Prime Minister and Government standing by him, whilst the Opposition has not called for him to be recalled from his post.
WHAT DOES THIS VICTORY MEAN FOR THE WORLD?
Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine almost immediately upon assuming the Presidency, by bringing Putin and Zelenskyy to the table. This approach will place Ukraine in a vulnerable position, as Ukraine is reliant on the US for financial, weaponry and political support. This provides Trump enormous leverage and will enable him to pressure Zelenskyy to compromise and make concessions. Putin, on the other hand, is not as vulnerable to any demands from Trump to concede as there is no support the US provides Russia regardless and it is highly unlikely that Trump would have the US engage in a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia.